Jul

China Can Help Belt and Road Countries Achieve INDCs

The world’s solar panel market has been growing rapidly over the last 10 years. According to International Energy Agency data, in 2012 the global cumulative installed solar capacity was 100 GW. By 2016 it had tripled to 304 GW.

China has played a major role in this expansion, both with its own domestic installations – like in Datong (pictured above) – and indirectly through solar panel exports.

Previously, GEI analyzed Chinese customs data to determine that in 2009, a majority of the top ten countries importing Chinese solar panels were developed nations. However, by 2016 developing countries secured spots among the top ten, including Malaysia and the Phillipines, and with India as the largest importer.

China’s solar exports serve as a key indicator for global solar energy development, as countries seek low-carbon solutions to meet energy demands.

As seen in these figures, China has and continues to take advantage of expanding markets for solar panels, especially along the Belt and Road countries.

These countries have each submitted Intended Nationally Determined Contributions (INDCs) – individual pledges made to reduce greenhouse gas emissions which are the leading contributor to climate change.

Are Belt and Road countries on track to meet their INDCs?

Given China’s expected investment along BR, GEI examined five BR countries, whose INDCs specifically outline solar energy targets.

Based on predictions using data from the International Renewable Energy Agency, only China and Turkey will meet their goals at their current capacity growth rate, among the five BR countries. India, Bangladesh, and Mongolia, on the other hand, will all have to significantly increase their rate of solar installations in order to reach their pledged targets (figure 3).

Despite this gap, China is well-equipped to help these countries achieve their goals. Both China’s pledge to promote South-South Cooperation and its BR initiative offer the resources and necessary investment to further promote solar development.

Aligning with China’s central economic strategy serves as an open corridor for these countries’ solar expansion. Looking toward Chinese companies to ratchet up more investments, we aim to see higher renewable penetration and in effect, increase more electricity access and connectivity for these countries.

COP, one belt one road, Overseas Investment, Renewable Energy, US-China